Peter Tessier: Jets Frozen out on Colin Miller? Coline Miller should have been a prime target for the Jets but were they frozen out by Vegas again?

Jets didn’t miss out, Vegas traded both players to Eastern Conference teams. Teams will take less to get a player out of the conference although not sure they took less here.

Jets would have had to really pay a steep price for Miller.

Guy's a sheltered 3rd pairing Dman that does well in the chance share battle but makes far too many mistakes in defending his own slot. His HD results (10.88 HDCF/60, 1.24 HDGF/60; 8.4 HDCA/60, 1.54 HDGA/60 over the past 3 years) end up looking quite poor despite seeing only 26.9% of his ice time against top opposition last year and between 18% and 19% in the 3 years prior (>31% is in-line with top-4 deployment).

I wouldn't be too quick to beat up on Chevy for not spending a 2nd on a 3.875mil 3rd pairing RD unless you're certain you have someone that could cover for his mistakes enough to make him a viable 2nd pairing option.

After the Jets sign their RFA’s & fill in their roster they will likely be about 4-5mil over the cap, so how on Earth does a 3rd pairing 3.8mil D fit on this team? I think Chevy is ueseless, but try to think this one through a bit more.

@MaximumBone

thank you very much for sharing, I have often thought the good anylitics folks on twitter jump all over a guys positive numbers without sometimes even seeing him play or knowing the details of his game. I to wanted this player based on what I had read ( not seen ) so I appreciate your info. also, one has to wonder about a player joining his 4th franchise???

@MaximumBone

thank you very much for sharing, I have often thought the good anylitics folks on twitter jump all over a guys positive numbers without sometimes even seeing him play or knowing the details of his game. I to wanted this player based on what I had read ( not seen ) so I appreciate your info. also, one has to wonder about a player joining his 4th franchise???
- Ross77

Given that three quality coaches (Julien, Cassidy and Gallant) have only seen fit to consistently play him in a very sheltered 3rd pairing role, you have to ask the question as to whether he's all he's hyped up to be by the first layer of stats.

@MaximumBone

thank you very much for sharing, I have often thought the good anylitics folks on twitter jump all over a guys positive numbers without sometimes even seeing him play or knowing the details of his game. I to wanted this player based on what I had read ( not seen ) so I appreciate your info. also, one has to wonder about a player joining his 4th franchise???
- Ross77

Quality of competition always levels out to being meaningless. Literally no difference made there, unless it’s a super extreme example.

As for Miller, you can’t argue how good he is. He is not a bottom pairing dman, and any research into this proves it. He’s at worst a high end #4, and we have a disaster of a blueline.

Miller is basically Dougie Hamilton-lite at this point. Very good, very underpaid, but he’s too offensively focused, and that’s not allowed. Fun=bad, results don’t matter. Look at how the Jets have drained the chaos out of Ehlers

Quality of competition always levels out to being meaningless. Literally no difference made there, unless it’s a super extreme example.

As for Miller, you can’t argue how good he is. He is not a bottom pairing dman, and any research into this proves it. He’s at worst a high end #4, and we have a disaster of a blueline.

Miller is basically Dougie Hamilton-lite at this point. Very good, very underpaid, but he’s too offensively focused, and that’s not allowed. Fun=bad, results don’t matter. Look at how the Jets have drained the chaos out of Ehlers
- Rexypoo

That's a school of thought I firmly disagree with. Sure it levels out a bit, but his coaches actively keep him away from the opposition's best players. Numbers from PuckIQ: http://www.puckiq.com/players/8476525

Average top-4 deployment sits around 31% deployment against elites; Miller saw 18 to 19% (super extreme, as you requested) in the three years prior to this one and 26.9 this year. This year's number was skewed by Schmidt's early absence. As Schmidt normally sees ~40% of his usage against top opposition, you can infer that Miller was quickly shifted back down to his 3-season average once he returned.

As for "any research proves it", feel free to contest my research. I'd happily argue the merits and lack thereof in my stance.

That's a school of thought I firmly disagree with. Sure it levels out a bit, but his coaches actively keep him away from the opposition's best players. Numbers from PuckIQ: http://www.puckiq.com/players/8476525

Average top-4 deployment sits around 31% deployment against elites; Miller saw 18 to 19% (super extreme, as you requested) in the three years prior to this one and 26.9 this year. This year's number was skewed by Schmidt's early absence. As Schmidt normally sees ~40% of his usage against top opposition, you can infer that Miller was quickly shifted back down to his 3-season average once he returned.

As for "any research proves it", feel free to contest my research. I'd happily argue the merits and lack thereof in my stance.
- MaximumBone

First thing is that I’m now down this QoC rabbit hole, so thanks for that. On a long weekend.

Second thing: a player with underlying numbers that strong is not suddenly going to be bad with an increase of minutes and competition. That’s not how that works. The competition will be levelled out by the increased quality of linemates, and it’s not like he’s a player that’s barely keeping his head above water in a shelter role, he’s way over-performing.
Joel Armia was a Jet that, while good in his role, would never have been competent higher in the lineup than line 4.
Matthieu Perreault is a player that can, and has, excelled at all 3 positions on all 4 forward lines.

Colin Miller is a Perreault.

Guy's a sheltered 3rd pairing Dman that does well in the chance share battle but makes far too many mistakes in defending his own slot. His HD results (10.88 HDCF/60, 1.24 HDGF/60; 8.4 HDCA/60, 1.54 HDGA/60 over the past 3 years) end up looking quite poor despite seeing only 26.9% of his ice time against top opposition last year and between 18% and 19% in the 3 years prior (>31% is in-line with top-4 deployment).

I wouldn't be too quick to beat up on Chevy for not spending a 2nd on a 3.875mil 3rd pairing RD unless you're certain you have someone that could cover for his mistakes enough to make him a viable 2nd pairing option.
- MaximumBone

Buffalo does. His name is Rasmus Dahlin.

We don’t know if Chevy tried to get Miller or not. If Vegas is freezing the Jets out then so be it. But I’m sure Chevy is trying to get something done.

First thing is that I’m now down this QoC rabbit hole, so thanks for that. On a long weekend.

Second thing: a player with underlying numbers that strong is not suddenly going to be bad with an increase of minutes and competition. That’s not how that works. The competition will be levelled out by the increased quality of linemates, and it’s not like he’s a player that’s barely keeping his head above water in a shelter role, he’s way over-performing.
Joel Armia was a Jet that, while good in his role, would never have been competent higher in the lineup than line 4.
Matthieu Perreault is a player that can, and has, excelled at all 3 positions on all 4 forward lines.

Colin Miller is a Perreault.
- Rexypoo

You're welcome

And my point isn't that his underlying numbers are going to sewer, it's that his underlying numbers aren't as good as they're made out to be. Sure, his shot share numbers are good and his chance share numbers are fine, but going a layer down, you see a rift form.

As you stated yourself- QoC is generally insignificant except in the extremes. I laid out why Miller is one such exception. Along with the on-ice rates of conversion, you're looking at a guy that consistently struggles to stop even the lower ends of opposition rosters.

As for the counter to the QoC argument, the point against QoC is that QoT usually balances it out; not that QoC is useless. In this case, he's both an extreme in limited usage against the best AND sees time with quality linemates. His most frequent linemates/partners are Merrill, McNabb, Marchessault, Karlsson and Smith. With the exception of Merrill, those are a number of key players for Vegas.

Buffalo does. His name is Rasmus Dahlin.
- kingcong39

Is that a burden you want to push on Dahlin? If I were you guys, I'd be more inclined to give him a partner that doesn't make many mistakes so you can let him run free and dominate the game like he's more than capable of.

Rexy, you have made the sheltered argument before to criticize Myers, and I have agreed with you, so its interesting to see you oppose this argument when it works against you?

Right now I see 34 year old Byfuglien probably leading the NHL in ice time.

If he misses 40 games again I will be looking forward to Lafreniere in a Jets jersey next June

Right now I see 34 year old Byfuglien probably leading the NHL in ice time.

If he misses 40 games again I will be looking forward to Lafreniere in a Jets jersey next June
- BWJumper

is that a bad thing?

is that a bad thing?
- Ross77

Not if the plan is to have him gassed for the playoffs.

I would like to see what Niku, Poolman and Stanley can do if given a chance and proper ice time. All they need is ice time and patients as they can't be worse than Morrow and Kulikov.

I would like to see what Niku, Poolman and Stanley can do if given a chance and proper ice time. All they need is ice time and patients as they can't be worse than Morrow and Kulikov.
- islansjet

Stanley isn’t ready, Niku will be 10 minutes per night under Maurice, and Poolman will start out in the press box. Maurice for the win.

Call up Holland and offer Ehlers for Russel? Bear? Sekera? Do a one for one; Chiarelli style!

Not if the plan is to have him gassed for the playoffs.
- BWJumper

I was talking about Lafreinere

After the Jets sign their RFA’s & fill in their roster they will likely be about 4-5mil over the cap, so how on Earth does a 3rd pairing 3.8mil D fit on this team? I think Chevy is ueseless, but try to think this one through a bit more.
- foxbat

Details please as this makes no sense why woild the Jets sign people to go over the cap to then have to dump salary in a position of weakness.

I mean of you are telling people to think things through...

Chevy is not going to anything. He never does anything. I am starting to think we will bring the team we have now into next year. Chevy does not have the cahunnas to make a big move!

I would like to see what Niku, Poolman and Stanley can do if given a chance and proper ice time. All they need is ice time and patients as they can't be worse than Morrow and Kulikov.
- islansjet

I would love to get Risto out of Buffalo.

You're welcome

And my point isn't that his underlying numbers are going to sewer, it's that his underlying numbers aren't as good as they're made out to be. Sure, his shot share numbers are good and his chance share numbers are fine, but going a layer down, you see a rift form.

As you stated yourself- QoC is generally insignificant except in the extremes. I laid out why Miller is one such exception. Along with the on-ice rates of conversion, you're looking at a guy that consistently struggles to stop even the lower ends of opposition rosters.

As for the counter to the QoC argument, the point against QoC is that QoT usually balances it out; not that QoC is useless. In this case, he's both an extreme in limited usage against the best AND sees time with quality linemates. His most frequent linemates/partners are Merrill, McNabb, Marchessault, Karlsson and Smith. With the exception of Merrill, those are a number of key players for Vegas.
- MaximumBone

I got onto the website. I just did a QoC on Adam Lowry. Lowry has below 50 Corsi when facing elite talent, except for the 2017-18 year when his winger was Joel Armia. Go figure. Adam Lowry like I have mentioned does great against middling talent.

Thank you for the website, it's going to provide me with many tools.